Industry 4.0 — Working Paper · Version 1.0

    The Blast Radius Problem: Genealogy Closure, Containment Queries, and Why a Lot Number Is Not Traceability

    Architecture, Computational Methods, and Reported Outcomes from MileSoft Material Traceability

    MileSoft Engineering Research Group · August 2026 · 6 min read

    under 1 mincontainment query returning affected units
    200 vs 20,000units contained, complete versus absent genealogy
    3 weeks → 1 dayIATF 16949 audit preparation, four-module programme

    Abstract

    Overview

    A recall is a set-membership problem before it is anything else. The customer names a defect; the supplier must return the set of units that could carry it. Every hour spent computing that set is spent shipping and installing more of them, and every unit wrongly included in it is contained, recovered and replaced at full cost for nothing.

    This paper presents the architecture and computational methods of MileSoft Material Traceability, which records receipt of raw lots, the sub-assembly events that consume them, final assembly into a serialised unit, and shipment to a customer, as a single directed acyclic graph. Containment is then a forward-closure computation on that graph and per-unit audit evidence is a backward closure — two traversals of one structure rather than two reconstructions from unlinked records.

    We state the closure computations, the blast-radius ratio that quantifies what genealogy is worth in a given recall, a commingling model for the resolution loss that occurs when lots are mixed at a bulk feed, and a completeness model showing that a genealogy degrades by collapsing to its weakest captured tier rather than proportionally. The work is anchored in ISO/IEC 19987 and 19988 for the event and vocabulary model, ISO 22005 for traceability system design, IATF 16949 and AS9100D for the automotive and aerospace evidence obligations, 21 CFR Part 11 for audit-trail integrity, EU Regulation 2017/745 for unique device identification, and the FDA Food Traceability Rule for critical tracking events.

    The product's published record reports containment queries returning affected units with customer and ship date in under a minute. A four-module deployment at a Tier-1 automotive supplier, in which this module was one of four, reported IATF 16949 audit preparation falling from three weeks to one day; that figure belongs to the programme and is not attributed to this module alone.

    Keywords

    Material traceability softwareGenealogy trackingRecall containment queryForward and backward traceabilityLot genealogyBarcode and RFID captureEPCIS event modelIATF 16949 traceabilityAS9100D counterfeit prevention21 CFR Part 11 audit trailEU MDR unique device identificationFSMA critical tracking events

    Contributions

    What this paper covers

    Each contribution is designed to be independently useful to engineers, procurement teams, and platform evaluators.

    01

    Genealogy as one graph with two closures

    Raw lot receipt, sub-assembly consumption, final assembly and shipment are recorded as tiers of a single directed acyclic graph. Containment is then the forward closure of a suspect lot and per-unit audit evidence is the backward closure of a unit — two traversals of one structure rather than two reconstructions from unlinked records.

    02

    A blast-radius ratio that makes genealogy computable

    The value of traceability in a given recall is the difference between the units that must be contained with the graph and the exposure window that must be contained without it. Stated as a ratio, beta, that a plant can compute today from its own shipping records and bill of materials — without deploying anything and without borrowing a vendor percentage.

    03

    A commingling model for the resolution a process actually permits

    Wherever lots are mixed at a bulk feed, traceability precision is bounded before any software is chosen. The model states that bound as rho, the number of units implicated per unit of suspect lot consumed, and shows that reducing it is a process change rather than a software change.

    04

    Why an incomplete genealogy fails discontinuously

    A graph with one uncaptured tier does not give a proportionally worse answer. It collapses to the whole population of the first broken tier, which is why a quiet capture failure is more dangerous than a loud one and why gap detection matters more than query speed.

    05

    Capability reference framework

    An eight-dimension, vendor-independent benchmark for traceability systems, each dimension answerable by demonstration against a running line rather than by reading a specification.

    Standards

    Governing standards addressed

    Computational methods and workflows in this paper are grounded in and validated against these published standards.

    ISO/IEC 19987:2024

    Information technology — EPC Information Services (EPCIS) Standard

    The event model carrying each traceability link: what object, when, where, and under which business step.

    ISO/IEC 19988:2024

    Information technology — GS1 Core Business Vocabulary (CBV)

    Permitted values for business step and disposition, so the same physical act is the same recorded fact across sites.

    ISO 22005:2007

    Traceability in the feed and food chain — General principles and basic requirements for system design and implementation

    The domain-neutral definition of traceability and the design requirements a traceability system must satisfy.

    IATF 16949:2016

    Quality management system requirements for automotive production and relevant service parts organizations

    Product traceability as part of the evidence-of-process-control obligation on automotive suppliers.

    AS9100D

    Quality Management Systems — Requirements for Aviation, Space, and Defense Organizations

    Configuration management and counterfeit-part prevention, both of which are traceability obligations in effect.

    21 CFR Part 11

    Electronic Records; Electronic Signatures

    Secure, computer-generated, time-stamped audit trails that do not obscure previously recorded information.

    Regulation (EU) 2017/745

    Regulation on medical devices (Medical Device Regulation)

    Unique device identification under Article 27 and economic-operator traceability obligations under Article 25.

    21 CFR Part 1, Subpart S

    Requirements for Additional Traceability Records for Certain Foods (the Food Traceability Rule)

    Critical tracking events, key data elements, and the 24-hour sortable-electronic-record obligation.

    GS1 General Specifications / SSCC

    GS1 identification keys and label placement

    Global Trade Item Number for a trade item class and Serial Shipping Container Code for a logistic unit.

    ISO/IEC 15459-1:2014

    Information technology — Automatic identification and data capture techniques — Unique identification — Part 1: Individual transport units

    Unique identification of transport units where a GS1 key is not in use.

    Full paper

    Read the complete text

    The entire paper is published here in full — sections, equations, figures, tables, and appendices.

    1Introduction

    The hardest call in manufacturing begins with a customer saying they found a defect and need to know which other units are affected. Everything that follows — the cost, the exposure, the relationship — is decided by how large the answer is and how long it takes to produce.

    Both are properties of a data structure that had to exist before the call. If receipt, consumption, assembly and shipment were recorded as linked events, the answer is a graph traversal returning a specific set of units with their customers and ship dates. If they were recorded as four unrelated logs, no traversal exists, and the only defensible answer is the whole exposure window.

    The product's own material states this contrast as the difference between containing 200 units and containing 20,000. That is an illustrative figure rather than a measured incident, and this paper treats it as such — but the ratio it points at is real, computable, and the subject of Section 4.2.

    1.1Why a lot number is not traceability

    Almost every manufacturer records lot numbers. Very few can compute a containment set. The gap between those two facts is the subject of this paper.

    A lot number on a receiving document is a label on a node. Traceability requires edges: this lot was consumed by that sub-assembly, that sub-assembly went into this unit, this unit shipped to that customer on that date. A node without its edges cannot be traversed, and edges cannot be inferred afterwards from timestamps and part numbers without assuming the very consumption order that was never recorded.

    The practical test is not whether lot numbers are stored. It is whether, given one lot number, the system returns finished units rather than a list of documents mentioning that lot.

    1.2Contributions

    1. A four-tier genealogy model stated as a directed acyclic graph, with containment and audit evidence as its forward and backward closures (Sections 3 and 4.1).
    2. A blast-radius ratio that makes the value of genealogy computable for a specific recall rather than asserted in general (Section 4.2).
    3. A commingling model for resolution loss at bulk feeds, which bounds achievable traceability precision independently of software (Section 4.3).
    4. A completeness model showing that one uncaptured tier collapses the containment set to that tier's whole population (Section 4.4).
    5. An eight-dimension capability reference framework, each dimension demonstrable on a running line (Section 6.3).

    2Background and Related Work

    Traceability is one of the few manufacturing capabilities with a settled international vocabulary, a settled event model, and a set of sector regulations that all describe the same structure in different words. The engineering problem is not defining traceability; it is capturing enough of it.

    2.1What the standards actually require

    ISO 22005 defines traceability as the ability to follow the movement of a material through specified stages of production, processing and distribution, and states the design requirements a traceability system must satisfy. It was written for feed and food, but its formulation is domain-neutral: specified stages, documented links, defined start and end points.

    The event model that carries this is EPCIS, standardised as ISO/IEC 19987, which records each event along four dimensions — what object, when, where, and under which business step. Its companion vocabulary, ISO/IEC 19988, fixes the permitted values for business step and disposition, so that packing at one site and packing at another are the same recorded fact rather than two local conventions.

    Sector regulation adds obligations rather than a different structure. IATF 16949 requires evidence of product traceability as part of evidence of process control. AS9100D adds configuration management and explicit counterfeit-part prevention, which is a traceability requirement in all but name. The Food Traceability Rule at 21 CFR Part 1 Subpart S names its links critical tracking events and its fields key data elements, and requires them to be produced as a sortable electronic record within twenty-four hours of a request. EU Regulation 2017/745 requires a unique device identifier under Article 27 and traceability obligations on economic operators under Article 25.

    Four regulators, four vocabularies, one structure: identified objects, captured links between them, and a bounded time in which the graph must be queryable.

    2.2Record integrity as a separate obligation

    A traceability graph that can be edited after the fact answers questions but proves nothing. 21 CFR Part 11 states the obligation directly: audit trails must be secure, computer-generated and time-stamped, must independently record the operator entries and actions that create, modify or delete a record, and must not obscure previously recorded information.

    This is stricter than it first appears. It rules out in-place correction of a genealogy edge: a mis-scanned lot is corrected by recording a superseding event, never by overwriting the original. The graph is therefore append-only with respect to history, and any query can be asked as of a date.

    2.3Identification keys and where they come from

    Genealogy edges connect identifiers, so the identifier scheme determines what can be connected. GS1 provides the Global Trade Item Number for a trade item class, the Serial Shipping Container Code for a logistic unit, and label placement rules governing where those symbols may be applied; ISO/IEC 15459-1 provides unique identification of transport units where a GS1 key is not in use.

    The distinction that matters for genealogy is class against instance. A trade item number identifies what something is; a serial number or vehicle identification number identifies which one. A genealogy built on class identifiers alone cannot separate two units of the same part number, which is exactly the separation a containment set requires.

    3System Overview

    The system is one graph with four kinds of node and three kinds of edge, fed by hardware-agnostic capture and queried in two directions. Everything else — dispositions, reports, regulatory profiles — is a projection of that graph.

    Figure 1. Schematic. Schematic (not product UI): the four-tier genealogy graph, with the forward closure of a suspect raw lot highlighted. The containment set is 200 units and two customers; without the graph, the defensible envelope is all 900 units and three customers.

    3.1The four tiers

    Table 1. The four node tiers, what identifies each, and the event that creates it.
    TierIdentityCreating event
    Raw lotSupplier lot number plus receipt referenceReceipt: supplier, lot, certificate, timestamp
    Sub-assemblySerial or internal batch identifierConsumption: which lots were drawn, at which station, by which operator
    Finished unitSerial number or vehicle identification numberFinal assembly: which sub-assemblies were fitted, with quality data attached
    ShipmentLogistic unit code and delivery referenceDespatch: which finished serials, to which customer, on which date

    Edges run only downstream in time, so the structure is acyclic by construction and both closures terminate. Rework is not a cycle: a reworked unit records a new event referencing the prior state, which keeps the ordering intact and satisfies the append-only requirement of Section 2.2.

    3.2Capture, and why it is hardware-agnostic

    Handheld barcode scanners, fixed RFID readers and RFID gate readers all feed the same spine. The system is deliberately indifferent to which produced a given edge, because the two technologies are good at different things and a real plant uses both.

    • RFID is used for bulk pallet movements and high-value sub-assemblies, where reads happen without line of sight and without a person stopping to aim.
    • Barcode is used for serialised components and operator-confirmed steps, where the act of scanning is itself the confirmation that a specified step was performed.

    The engineering consequence is that the capture layer must normalise two quite different failure modes. A barcode read fails loudly — nothing is recorded and the operator sees it. An RFID gate read fails quietly, by reading fourteen of fifteen tags on a pallet. The second is the dangerous one, because it produces a genealogy that looks complete and is not, which is precisely the condition Section 4.4 models.

    3.3The two queries and the disposition layer

    Forward containment takes a lot, part number or date range and returns affected finished units with customer and ship date. Backward genealogy takes a unit and returns every lot that entered it, with the quality data captured along the way — torque events, test results, inspection sign-offs where those systems are integrated.

    On top of both sits lot-level disposition: hold, non-conformance report, rework, release. A disposition is itself an event on the graph rather than a flag on a row, which is what makes the state of a lot answerable as of any past date — the question an auditor actually asks.

    What-if recall modelling runs the forward closure against a hypothetical defect signature before any customer call. Its purpose is not the answer but the exposure: a plant that has never run one does not know its own blast radius.

    4Computational Methods

    Four computations do the work. The first two are what the system runs; the third and fourth are what a plant should run on itself before it trusts the first two.

    4.1Containment and audit evidence as graph closures

    Let G = (V, E) be the genealogy graph, with V partitioned into the four tiers of Section 3.1 and each edge (u, v) recording that u was consumed by, fitted into, or despatched as v.

    D(u) = every node reachable from u (the forward closure), A(v) = every node that reaches v (the backward closure)(closure)
    u ~> v denotes the existence of a directed path from u to v. The containment set for a suspect lot L is D(L) restricted to the finished-unit and shipment tiers; the audit genealogy for a unit is A(unit) restricted to the raw-lot tier.

    Both are single-source reachability computations, linear in the edges actually touched rather than in the size of the graph. This is why the published sub-minute containment figure is architecturally credible: the traversal visits the affected subgraph, not the year of production it sits in.

    The cost of a containment query is a property of the answer, not of the database. A recall touching 200 units costs the same to compute whether the plant has built 200,000 units or 20 million.

    4.2The blast-radius ratio

    What genealogy is worth in a given recall is the difference between the set that must be contained with it and the set that must be contained without it. Both are computable, which turns a marketing contrast into an engineering quantity.

    beta = (units shipped in the exposure window) / (units in the forward closure of the suspect lot), cost avoided = unit containment cost x the difference between them(blast)
    N(window) is every unit shipped between the earliest and latest possible use of the suspect lot — the envelope a plant must contain when it cannot compute D(L). c(unit) is the fully loaded cost of containing, recovering and replacing one unit.

    Beta is a property of the plant, not of the incident: it rises with production rate, with lot size relative to consumption rate, and with the delay between consumption and the defect being noticed. A plant can compute its own beta today from its shipping records and its bill of materials, without deploying anything.

    The 200-against-20,000 contrast published for this product is a beta of 100. Appendix B works a smaller and more typical case and still reaches a beta of 4.5.

    4.3Commingling, and the resolution a genealogy can actually reach

    Traceability precision is bounded before any software is chosen, by the points at which lots are physically mixed. A hopper fed from two lots produces parts that belong to both; a paint batch, a bulk fastener bin and a resin silo all behave the same way.

    rho = units implicated per unit of suspect lot consumed, and the implicated set is at least the sum of the mixing-vessel populations the lot passed through(commingle)
    q(L) is the quantity of the suspect lot consumed, K the set of mixing points it passed through, and m(k) the number of units drawn from vessel k between the lot entering it and the vessel being emptied. rho = 1 is perfect resolution; rho > 1 is the dilution the physical process imposes.

    The engineering consequence is that improving traceability is often a process change rather than a software change: emptying a hopper between lots, reducing vessel size, or recording a purge event all reduce rho directly. A system that captures mixing events at least makes rho visible; one that does not lets a plant believe its resolution is higher than the physics allows.

    A supplier claiming unit-level traceability through a bulk feed is claiming something the process does not support. The honest claim is lot-to-vessel-population traceability, and the number that matters is rho.

    4.4Why an incomplete genealogy fails discontinuously

    It is tempting to treat genealogy completeness as a percentage, on the assumption that a 90% complete graph gives a 90% good answer. It does not, and the reason is structural.

    gamma(t) = captured edges at tier t / true edges at tier t, and the computed containment set equals the true one only if every tier is complete - otherwise it is the whole population of the first broken tier(completeness)
    t* is the earliest tier at which gamma < 1 along the suspect path. Below that tier the traversal has no edges to follow, so every node in it is a candidate and must be contained.
    Figure 2. Schematic. Schematic (not measured data): containment population against which tiers were captured. The claim is the discontinuity, not the absolute scale — losing one tier does not cost a proportional amount of precision, it collapses the answer to that tier's whole population.

    This is why the quiet RFID failure of Section 3.2 matters more than its read rate suggests. A gate reading fourteen of fifteen tags has gamma = 0.93 at that tier, and any recall whose path crosses the missing edge is answered at the resolution of the tier above.

    5Reported Outcomes and Field Evidence

    This section separates three kinds of claim, because they carry different weight and a reader is entitled to know which is which.

    5.1Figures published for this module

    Table 2. Figures published for this module, with their provenance.
    FigureValueProvenance
    Containment query timeunder one minuteProduct material — vendor-reported, no sample or distribution given
    Containment population contrast200 units against 20,000Product material — explicitly illustrative, not a measured incident
    Regulatory profiles supportedIATF 16949, AS9100, 21 CFR Part 11, EU MDR, FSMAProduct material — configurable per domain and contract

    The first is a system property that Section 4.1 makes architecturally credible — a closure traversal is bounded by the answer, not by the archive. The second is presented in its own source as a contrast rather than a measurement, and this paper does not upgrade it.

    5.2A deployment in which this module was one of four

    A Tier-1 automotive supplier deployed four MileSoft modules together across two plants — Torque Traceability, Andon, this module, and ERP. This module supplied genealogy from raw lot through sub-assembly to finished vehicle identification number, closing the loop for IATF 16949 audits.

    The programme reported IATF 16949 audit preparation falling from three weeks to one day, with audit evidence — torque history, process control charts, traceability links — available directly from the system rather than manually consolidated.

    Shared attribution. That result belongs to the four-module programme. Torque history and process control charts came from a different module, and the individual contribution of material genealogy was not isolated. It is reported here as programme evidence, not as this module's measured effect.

    What can be said specifically is narrower and more useful: the audit-preparation obligation this module addresses is the traceability link evidence, and that evidence is a projection of the graph in Section 3 rather than a document assembled for the auditor.

    5.3Modelled scrap and recall avoidance

    The published return model for this module is stated as a scrap and recall reduction, and every assumption in it is printed here so a reader can substitute their own.

    Table 3. Modelled scenario — not a deployment result. Assumptions are the published defaults of the return-on-investment model for this product.
    AssumptionValue
    Units produced per month50,000 (600,000 per year)
    Baseline scrap and recall rate1% (6,000 events per year)
    Reduction attributed to the module50%
    Modelled events avoided per year3,000
    Cost per scrap or recall eventsite-specific; the published default is used only to illustrate

    The 50% figure is an assumption, not a measurement, and it is the one a buyer should interrogate hardest. Genealogy does not prevent a defective lot from being consumed. What it changes is how much of the consequence is contained, and Section 4.2 gives the honest form of that argument: the saving is c(unit) times the difference between the window and the closure, not a percentage of the defect rate.

    This paper reports the published model faithfully and disagrees with its framing. Compute beta from your own shipping records and bill of materials; it is a better estimate than any percentage a vendor can supply.

    6Discussion

    6.1The binding constraint is capture, not query

    Every traceability system on the market can traverse a graph. The differences that decide whether a plant can answer a recall are all upstream of the query, in whether the edges exist.

    This reframes the buying decision. The question is not how fast the containment query runs but how many events per shift the floor must contribute, how many of those are automatic, and what happens to the graph when one is missed. A system requiring twelve manual scans per unit will have gaps; one deriving ten of them from equipment will not.

    It also reframes the deployment. The expensive part is not configuration — it is instrumenting the consumption points, which is a floor-layout and process question that software cannot answer on its own.

    6.2One graph, five regulatory profiles

    The product supports traceability requirements across five regimes. It is worth being precise about what that means, because the sector standards differ in obligation while agreeing almost entirely in structure.

    Table 4. What each regime adds on top of the common graph. The structure is shared; the obligations are not.
    RegimeWhat it addsWhere it lands in the model
    IATF 16949Traceability as evidence of process controlBackward closure with quality data attached at each tier
    AS9100DConfiguration management, counterfeit-part preventionSupplier certificate held on the raw-lot node and traversed with it
    21 CFR Part 11Secure, computer-generated, tamper-evident audit trailAppend-only event history; superseding events rather than edits
    EU 2017/745Unique device identifier, economic-operator traceabilityInstance-level identity at the finished-unit tier; shipment tier extended past the first consignee
    21 CFR Part 1, Subpart SCritical tracking events, key data elements, 24-hour sortable recordThe tier events themselves, with a mandated field set and a response-time obligation

    The practical implication is that a manufacturer serving two regulated sectors does not need two traceability systems. It needs one graph, two field profiles and two report formats — which is the whole argument for building on a standard event model rather than a sector-specific one.

    6.3A capability reference framework for traceability systems

    Table 5. Capability reference framework. Each dimension separates a traceability system from a lot-number field, and each is answerable by demonstration on a running line rather than by a specification sheet.
    DimensionQuestion the system must answer by demonstration
    D1 Edges, not labelsGiven one raw lot number, does the system return finished units — or documents mentioning that lot?
    D2 Both closuresCan it answer forward containment and backward genealogy from the same structure?
    D3 Instance identityDoes the finished tier carry a serial or vehicle identification number, or only a part number?
    D4 Append-only historyCorrect a mis-scanned lot. Is the original still visible, superseded rather than overwritten?
    D5 Commingling visibleDoes a mixing point record an event, so that rho is computable rather than assumed to be 1?
    D6 Gap detectionBreak one edge deliberately. Does the system report a gap, or silently return a smaller answer?
    D7 As-of queriesAsk for the disposition of a lot as it stood ninety days ago. Does it answer?
    D8 Time to answerRun a containment query on live production data, not a demonstration dataset. How long?

    D6 is the dimension buyers almost never test and the one that decides whether a recall answer can be trusted. A system that returns a confident wrong set is more dangerous than one that returns nothing.

    6.4Generalisability

    The graph model generalises wherever material is transformed and identity is preserved: automotive, aerospace, medical devices, food, pharmaceuticals. The commingling model of Section 4.3 generalises to any process with a mixing vessel and is the limiting factor in exactly those industries where regulation is strictest.

    What does not generalise is the blast-radius ratio's magnitude. Beta depends on production rate, lot size and detection delay, so a figure quoted from one plant says nothing about another. It should be computed, not borrowed — including from this paper.

    7Threats to Validity and Limitations

    1. The 200-against-20,000 contrast is illustrative. It is published as an illustration of the difference between surgical and catastrophic containment, not as a measured incident, and no sample or site is attached to it.
    2. The sub-minute containment figure is vendor-reported. Section 4.1 argues it is architecturally credible, but architectural credibility is not measurement; no dataset size, graph depth or hardware is stated.
    3. The audit-preparation result is confounded. Three weeks to one day belongs to a four-module programme, and the largest component of the evidence involved — torque history and process control charts — came from a different module.
    4. The 50% scrap and recall reduction is a model assumption. Genealogy contains consequences rather than preventing defects, so this figure is doing work the mechanism does not obviously support; Section 5.3 gives the form of the argument that does.
    5. Traceability precision is bounded by process, not software. Wherever lots commingle, rho exceeds 1 and no system can recover unit-level resolution that the physical process destroyed.
    6. Supplier-side genealogy depends on the supplier. Walking backwards past the facility requires the supplier's certificate and lot structure to be in the system; where it is not, the graph terminates at receipt.
    7. Quiet capture failures are not fully detectable. A gate reading fourteen of fifteen tags produces a plausible graph. Reconciliation against expected counts limits this, but a system cannot in general prove that an edge which was never captured should have existed.
    8. No independent audit of regulatory conformance. Support for five regulatory profiles is a vendor statement; conformance in a given deployment is established by that deployment's audit, not by this paper.

    The seventh limitation is the one that should shape a buyer's evaluation. Ask what the system does when an edge is missing, and prefer the answer that reports a gap over the answer that returns a smaller set.

    8Future Work

    • Publishing beta distributions rather than a single contrast. A blast-radius ratio measured across a range of real recalls would replace the illustrative 100 with something a buyer could reason about.
    • Gap detection as a reported metric. Continuous reconciliation of captured edges against expected counts would let gamma be published per tier per shift, turning Section 4.4 from a warning into an instrument.
    • Commingling instrumentation. Recording vessel purge and changeover as first-class events would make rho measurable rather than estimated, and would identify which process changes buy the most resolution.
    • Supplier graph federation. Extending the backward closure past receipt requires a shared event model rather than a shared database; ISO/IEC 19987 and 19988 already provide the vocabulary for it.
    • Isolating this module's contribution in multi-module programmes, so audit-preparation improvement can be attributed rather than reported as a shared result.

    9Conclusion

    A recall is a set-membership problem, and the set is either computable or it is not. What decides that is whether receipt, consumption, assembly and shipment were captured as edges of one graph while production was running, because none of those links can be reconstructed afterwards from records that were never joined.

    Three results in this paper are the ones worth carrying away. Containment and audit evidence are the two closures of a single structure, so the cost of an answer scales with the answer rather than the archive. The value of that structure in a given recall is a computable ratio, beta, which a plant can estimate today from records it already holds. And genealogy does not degrade gracefully: one uncaptured tier collapses the answer to that tier's whole population, which is why a system's behaviour on a missing edge matters more than its behaviour on a complete one.

    The framework of Section 6.3 is offered as the durable contribution. Its sixth dimension is the one to test first, and testing it takes an afternoon: break an edge on purpose, and see whether the system tells you.


    Appendix ANomenclature

    Table 6. Symbols and abbreviations used in this paper.
    Symbol / termMeaning
    G = (V, E)The genealogy graph: nodes are lots, sub-assemblies, units and shipments; edges are captured consumption or despatch events
    u ~> vA directed path exists from u to v
    D(u)Forward closure — every node reachable from u; the containment set
    A(v)Backward closure — every node that reaches v; the audit genealogy
    N(window)Units shipped within the exposure window, the fallback containment envelope
    betaBlast-radius ratio: |N(window)| divided by the true affected population
    c(unit)Fully loaded cost of containing, recovering and replacing one unit
    rhoCommingling resolution: units implicated per unit of suspect lot consumed
    m(k)Units drawn from mixing vessel k while the suspect lot was in it
    gamma(t)Capture completeness at tier t: captured edges over true edges
    t*The earliest tier along the suspect path at which gamma is below 1
    CTE / KDECritical tracking event and key data element, the Food Traceability Rule's terms for a link and its fields
    UDIUnique device identifier, required under EU Regulation 2017/745 Article 27
    SSCC / GTINSerial Shipping Container Code and Global Trade Item Number

    Appendix BWorked Numerical Examples

    Appendix B.1Computing a plant's own blast-radius ratio

    A plant builds 900 units in the exposure window. A supplier reports a defect in raw lot L1, delivered on day 3 and consumed over days 4 to 9. The genealogy graph shows L1 was drawn into two sub-assemblies, which were fitted to 120 and 80 finished units respectively.

    Applying Equation (closure), the containment set is 200 units, resolving to two customers. Applying Equation (blast), beta = 900 / 200 = 4.5.

    At a fully loaded containment cost of 180 currency units per vehicle, the avoided cost is 180 x (900 — 200) = 126,000 for this single incident. Note what the calculation does not require: no assumption about defect rates, no percentage reduction, no vendor figure. It uses the plant's own shipping records and its own bill of materials.

    This is the calculation a buyer should run before any procurement conversation. If beta comes out near 1, this class of system is not the plant's largest opportunity — and knowing that is worth the afternoon it takes.

    Appendix B.2What a hopper does to resolution

    The same lot L1 is a fastener stock feeding a bulk hopper. 400 fasteners from L1 are tipped into a hopper already holding 600 from lot L0, and the hopper is drawn down over the next 1,000 units without being emptied.

    Applying Equation (commingle), q(L1) = 400 but the implicated set is the whole vessel population m(k) = 1,000, so rho = 1,000 / 400 = 2.5. No software recovers the missing resolution: after mixing, no record distinguishes which unit received an L1 fastener and which an L0.

    Two process changes each cut this directly. Emptying the hopper between lots gives m(k) = 400 and rho = 1.0. Halving the hopper gives m(k) = 500 and rho = 1.25. Both are cheaper than any software, and neither is visible to a plant whose system does not record mixing events.

    Appendix B.3The cost of one missing tier

    Take the graph of the first example and remove the sub-assembly tier — the plant records lot receipts and finished units, but never captured which sub-assemblies consumed which lots.

    Applying Equation (completeness), gamma at the sub-assembly tier is 0, so t* is that tier and the computed containment set is its entire population. Every unit built from any sub-assembly of that type in the window is a candidate: 900 rather than 200.

    The graph was 75% complete by tier count — three of four tiers captured — and delivered none of the precision. Beta returns to 4.5 despite the substantial capture investment already made, which is the practical meaning of the discontinuity in Figure (blast): partial genealogy buys partial confidence, not partial containment.

    Provenance

    Where these numbers come from

    Every quantitative claim in this paper traces to a named deployment, a product specification, or an explicitly labelled model.

    MetricReported valueProvenance
    Containment query timeunder one minuteProduct specification/products/material-traceability
    Containment population with complete versus incomplete genealogy200 units versus 20,000Product specification/products/material-traceability

    Illustrative contrast published in the Material Traceability blog post, not a measured incident.

    Scrap and recall events avoided per year3,000 of 6,000 (modelled)Modelled estimate
    • 50,000 units per month, 600,000 per year
    • Baseline scrap and recall rate of 1%
    • 50% reduction attributed to the module
    • Model and defaults published in src/data/roiModels.ts
    IATF 16949 audit preparation time1 day (from 3 weeks)Operator-reported — Tier-1 Manufacturers (Pune + Nasik plants, India)/case-studies/industry40
    Phased rollout duration8 weeks (plant 1), 6 weeks (plant 2)Operator-reported — Tier-1 Manufacturers (Pune + Nasik plants, India)/case-studies/industry40

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    MileSoft Engineering Research Group (2026). The Blast Radius Problem: Genealogy Closure, Containment Queries, and Why a Lot Number Is Not Traceability: Architecture, Computational Methods, and Reported Outcomes from MileSoft Material Traceability. Working Paper Version 1.0. MileSoft Software Technologies. https://milesoft.net/research/products/material-traceability

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